I bet you the east-west pipeline in Canada would go ahead sooner than Keystone XL. They could put a terminal out east and then use tankers to transport the oil down the coast and to the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, I also think that Keystone XL will be broken up further into sub projects. They already broke out the section that goes from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. Next, they'll just build the pipeline from the Bakken oilfields in Montana to Cushing. Since it is not crossing the border, no Presidential Approvals are required, but only state level approvals.
There is a multi-fold benefit to Canada if the east-west pipeline goes ahead:
1. Eastern Canadian refineries have to import oil @ Brent prices. They could get Alberta oil @ Nymex prices. 2. Alberta is forced to discount our oil for export since we only have one customer (the US). Whoever thought this was a good idea should be shot. You can't just have one customer, as they can pretty much dictate what they want to pay. If you have many customers, then it's supply and demand. Now, we could potentially get fair market (i.e. Nymex) prices. 3. We can still export oil from the Atlantic Coast.
